Informes

Spain’s real fixed investment and industrial production are expected to continue to grow and exports are also expected to accelerate in 2015.

The rebound of the Dutch economy is expected to accelerate in 2015, with export growth accompanied by a recovery in private consumption, industrial production and investment.

In 2015, Ireland’s economy is forecast to grow by 3.6%, backed by exports to the US and UK where demand is picking up. Private consumption is expected to increase further.

In contrast to previous years when exports provided the main contribution to German economic growth, household consumption is expected to become the key driver in 2015.

In 2015 the French economy is expected to grow 1.1% as private consumption, manufacturing and exports improve. However, this projected growth rate remains below the forecast eurozone average of 1.4%.

The Danish economy is expected to rebound further, with a 1.8% expansion forecast for 2015 as private consumption and investment growth accelerate and export growth continues.

Belgian economic growth accelerated to 1.0% in 2014 after two years of weak performance. This improvement is expected to continue in 2015, with 1.2% growth in GDP forecast.

After modest growth in 2013 (up 0.3%) and 2014 (up 0.4%) the Austrian economy is expected to see a modest 0.8% surge in 2015.

There are positive signs for the Turkish chemicals industry. In 2015, the chemicals sector is expected to grow driven by increasing demand and the positive effects of the lower oil prices.

Growth in the chemicals sector is forecast to continue in 2015, on the back of UK’s robust economic performance.

Chemicals/pharmaceuticals has been a well performing sector in Switzerland; demand and profit margins are expected to remain stable in 2015.

In 2015, Singapore’s GDP is forecast to grow a modest 3 %, and the production of chemicals is expected to grow at the same rate.

The chemicals sector in Mexico is expected to grow modestly in 2015 due to the country’s lower economic growth (forecast 2.6 % in 2015).

In Q1 2015, the Dutch chemicals sector saw an increase in production and exports. Additionally, it is expected that Dutch chemicals businesses ́ investments will increase in 2015.

In 2015 Italian chemicals production is forecast to grow 1.4 %, due to increasing exports (up 3.2 %) and the first signs of improving domestic demand (up 1.3 %) after four years of contraction.

The Belgian chemicals sector is expected to grow in 2015, helped by a weaker euro, lower oil prices and a eurozone rebound.

The chemicals sector is benefiting from the on-going US economic growth. US chemicals production growth is expected to increase 3.7 % in 2015 and 3.9 % in 2016 (after growing 2 % in 2014).

Since 2000, the Spanish chemicals sector has increased its exports by more than 170 %, demonstrating its competitive edge in the global market.

German chemicals/pharmaceuticals businesses have a strong market position, and many are highly specialised. The industry has a well-deserved reputation for innovation and a competitive edge.

The chemicals sector ́s export share (mainly in Europe) amounts to more than two thirds of overall sales. French businesses are in strong competition with international players, especially the US.

Chemicals production in China is expected to increase 8.5 % in 2015 following the 8.8 % growth rate registered in 2014.

The UAE’s ICT market is currently characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in sub-segments like PCs and desktops.

In 2015, the Dutch ICT sector is expected to grow 3 % in volume, on the back of the country’s economic rebound (GDP is forecast to grow 1.7 %).

The ICT sector has seen a decline due to the economic downturn in Brazil, with decreasing demand, exchange rate volatility and high interest rates.

Australia’s ICT sector continues to perform well while the IT market in particular is expected to have considerable medium-term growth potential.

In combination with a forecast rebound of the Italian economy (up 0.7 %), the ICT sector is expected to record a modest growth of 0.6% in 2015.

Robust growth is expected to continue over the medium term, with compound annual growth rate forecast at 11.6 % for 2015-2019.

In the US, revenues for new, emerging product categories are expected to double in 2015 with strong demand for 3D printers, 4K Ultra HD TVs, connected home products, unmanned systems and wearables.

British ICT businesses will face stronger competition from their European peers, mainly due to the strengthening of the pound.

The main strengths of the Polish IT sector are the stable demand, a strong export performance and financial transparency, as the largest IT distributors are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

As in 2014, the 2015 outlook for the French ICT industry looks reasonably favourable with sales growth expected to increase by 2 %.

Global economic growth remains tepid and weaker than expected. A ‘new normal’ of structurally lower growth rates in both advanced and emerging markets has become manifest.

International survey of B2B payment behaviour Survey results for Slovakia

Despite the significant amount of time given B2B customers to pay their invoices, a sizeable proportion of the total value of domestic B2B receivables in Turkey (55.2%) was overdue.

In Hungary, late payment of invoices is reflected in the DSO figure, averaging 80 days. This is significantly above the 59 day average for Eastern Europe.

2015 is expected to be a difficult year for Eastern Europe. This is forecast to place a long-term strain on corporate payment behaviour in many countries in the region.

Respondents in the Czech Republic show a relatively stronger preference for selling on credit to domestic than to foreign B2B customers.

The 80 day average DSO recorded in Poland (and Hungary) is the longest of all the countries surveyed in Eastern Europe.

An agreement curtailing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions could reopen the Iranian economy to Western exporters, creating opportunities but also risks.

33% of survey respondents in Sweden (compared to 20% in Western Europe) consider a fall in demand for their products and services as one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.

When asked to indicate the greatest challenge to business profitability in 2015 two in five Greek respondents indicated maintaining adequate cash flow and collection of outstanding invoices.

B2B payment defaults in Western Europe remain significant. This is expected to slow the still weak economic recovery, particularly of the Eurozone, and keep insolvency rates well above 2007 levels.

Respondents in Denmark are the most inclined to use trade credit of all the countries surveyed in Western Europe. 70.5% of the total value of their domestic B2B sales is transacted on credit terms.

31% of survey respondents in Switzerland, compared to 24% in Western Europe overall, consider cost containment to be one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.

Late payment of domestic and foreign B2B invoices is reflected in the 52 day average DSO figure of French survey respondents (nearly two weeks longer than two years ago).

The 58 day average DSO in Spain appears to be heavily impacted by high delinquency rates. These average 10% of the value of B2B receivables, mainly on the domestic market.

The payment default environment observed in Great Britain suggests businesses are making a strong effort to improve business profitability by managing their receivables portfolios more efficiently.

Consistent with Western Europe overall, one in four survey respondents in Belgium consider cost containment to be one of the biggest challenges to business profitability in 2015.

The strong focus on protection of exports from the risk of payment default by customers comes as no surprise for the Netherlands, whose GDP growth is heavily dependent on international trade.

24% of survey respondents in Austria were concerned about maintaining sufficient cash flow levels. They consider this as one of the greatest challenges to business profitability in 2015.